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COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the...

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Elections And Morbid Contango

As always, it’s about the whole thing. A true economic boom spreads out real gains to the vast majority of the population. There will always be some proportion of people who are left out. But in the...

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COT Black Is Partially Back With A Lot of Towels

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in a bit of a tough spot. Being subject to the federal government shutdown meant shutting down the various Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for all...

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COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely...

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Vaccines and Senate Subsidies, Ls and Ks

In a sense, it’s being priced like a game of chicken. On the one side, there’s been vaccine-aphoria now combined with this week’s subsidy-mania driving narratives more than markets. Really not all...

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously. Legacy of the 1970’s experience...

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Oil’s Recurrent Re-Curving

The post-Pfizer vaccine rush pushed most of the contango out of the WTI futures curve. The aftermath of the Georgia Senate vote, and with it dreams of even larger, more carefree fiscal “stimulus”,...

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Hot Oil, Cold Weather, Uncle Sam’s Green

For a couple of weeks, the $600 payments from Uncle Sam seemed to have found their way into the tanks of Americans driving their automobiles a little bit more than they had. According to the US Energy...

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OK, NYMEX, Go On…

Well, that will get everyone’s attention, at least for now. Should something happen to the crude oil rocketship, there goes inflation. A day after the FOMC releases substantial upward revisions to...

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Crude Contradictions Therefore Uncertainty And Big Volatility

This one took some real, well, talent. It was late morning on April 11, the crude oil market was in some distress. The price was falling faster, already down sharply over just the preceding two weeks....

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